Monday, May 4, 2009

You know it's a recession when...


You host a poker game and you realize all four of your households have taken a direct hit.

One friend, an architect, has been working a four-day week for several months with a corresponding 20 percent pay cut. He considers himself fortunate, considering the number of architects in town who are unemployed.
Another friend says his wife, unable to find full-time work in her specialty, has had to go back to trade school to train for an entry-level job in another field that will pay her a fraction of what she formerly earned.
A third friend, recently retired, has had to refinance his home yet again to cover the cost of remodeling a beach house while his wife extends her planned retirement date to next January.
And me? Starting this month, I take a 10 percent pay cut and have to schedule four unpaid furlough days between now and Sept. 1.

No matter where you look, the economy looms, casting its shadow over our lives in ways both obvious and subtle.

Portland and its iconic Powell's Books (owner Michael Powell and daughter Emily, above) found itself in the national news again, courtesy of The New York Times. In a piece that ran in late March, "A downtown wraps a city in hesitance," reporter Peter Goodman deftly described the nervousness that was causing Portlanders to curtail their spending.
Throughout the American economy, retrenchment is begetting retrenchment. Falling home prices, weak consumer spending, diminishing investment and a fresh reappraisal of risk are combining to bring more of each. Grim expectations about the future are becoming self-fulfilling prophesies, as nervous companies cancel investments and households defer purchases.
Similarly, in a piece that ran in The Oregonian's Sunday Opinion section (commissioned and edited by yours truly), economist Joe Cortright said "contagious pessimism" has resulted in the loss of 42.000 jobs in Oregon during the past year.
Just as the housing bubble was inflated by widespread expectations that housing prices could only go up, our economy is now being dragged down by consumer and business belief that things will inevitably get worse. Consumers have cut back spending sharply, not just for houses and cars, but in retail stores and restaurants. Businesses are cutting back too. Wholesale, trucking and retail jobs are down, as are restaurant jobs. And temp agencies jobs are down 30 percent. Together, these sectors have lost about 42,000 jobs in the last 12 months.
I reference these articles not to compound anyone's sense of dread, but simply to offer some context (yes, we're all in the same boat), perspective (things could be far, far worse) and encouragement (if we haven't hit bottom already, I can't imagine it's not too far away).

Not to sound naive, but I'm like most Americans, who've told pollsters that they believe we're on the right track, thanks to new leadership in the White House. Obama inherited one hell of a mess, but I think he's going to pull us out of this. It may take longer and cause more pain than we'd like, but at least he's got the majority of the country pulling for and with him.

(A question for followers and other readers: How has the recession affected you?)

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